The significance of the NCAA sleeper

What do Drake, Butler, Creighton, Davidson and Kent State all have in common? They are all mid-major teams who are fighting for those limited spots in the NCAA tournament in March. They are the Rams of Virginia Commonwealth upsetting the Duke Blue Devils on a last second shot in the first round last year. They are 14th ranked Northwestern State beating the buzzer to knock off the third ranked Hawkeye’s of Iowa in 2006. And most of all, they are George Mason and their remarkable run to the final four two seasons ago.

A sleeper team is also known as a Cinderella story. What’s so remarkable about a Cinderella team that does well is that the NCAA tournament is set up for the higher seeds to succeed and advance. Any seed ranked 11 and higher have the most difficult and grueling road to the championship game. In fact, no team ranked 16th (which is the lowest seed in the tournament) has ever beaten a number one. A number 15 seed has only triumphed four percent of the time over a number two seed, while the three seeds take care of the 14th seeds 84 percent of the time.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs rid quickly their tag of a sleeping Cinderella after their planned non-conference schedule over the years and the noise that they would make in March. Because of this scenario, a door has been opened the last few seasons for at least two teams in the West Coast Conference (WCC) to reach the NCAA tournament. If one team won its conference, the only chance for another team in that same conference to go to the tournament would have to come through an at-large bid, which is an invitation to the Big Dance, instead of a right.

Every division I conference tournament winner (whose games start in less than two weeks) receives an automatic birth in the 65 team tournament. If a single team not only dominates their smaller conference (Mid-American, Missouri Valley, Atlantic Sun, etc.), but also beats a team (or teams) in the bigger conferences (i.e. ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC 10, etc.) in their non-conference schedule, they would be giving themselves a legitimate chance.

Take for example this year’s Butler Bulldogs, ranked 14th in the Associated Press poll. Butler is currently 14-2 in the Horizon standings and are 25-3 overall. Because wins against their own conference aren’t as significant, the Bulldogs played two non-conference opponents in Texas Tech and Virginia, both of which they beat. This helps their strength of schedule (SOS) and provides them with a better chance of getting into the tournament if they were to have lost a few more of their games.

These mid-major sleeper teams are never what you expect. Nobody expected George Mason to beat the University of Connecticut and advance to the final four. Nobody will expect it this year either. That’s the joy of the tournament: its’ unpredictability.